I'm sure some of you have seen blutarsky's blog about turnover margin and regression to the mean. He and I are of kindred spirits. Here's the last 8 years of T.O. margin in the SEC: http://blutarsky.wordpress.com/
Georgia's numbers are:
09: -16
08: -3
07: 9
06: -1
05: 11
04: -2
03: 11
02: 8
It's easy to see how you go to the Sugar Bowl or get to the dome: finish w/ +8 or better in T.O. margin. What you also see is that last year's numbers were darn near astronomical. How in the world we won 8 games playing 12 of 13 games against BCS opponents and playing in the SEC is beyond comprehension. They were literally our undoing. Losses at OSU, vs. Tennessee and vs. UK were directly related to turnovers. What you see is that the odds of us repeating that are even more astronomical. Last season alone took our average from 4.7 to 2.1. The law of averages (and the fact that our running backs know the plays now and we don't have Cox at QB) has to decrease the turnovers. Trading at Stillwater, vs. Arizona St., vs. LSU, and at Tech for vs. UL-Laf., at Colorado, at Miss. St., vs. Tech won't hurt either. Losing Willie, is obviously a plus, too. I'm looking through red and black glasses, but it's hard for me to look at those numbers and not thing we're going to be a lot better and by a lot I mean a lot more Ws.
If you are going to talk about UGA football Offense, what should be said sir is that Coach Richt told all his offensive coaching staff he is taking over the offense.
ReplyDeleteIf you are going to talk about UGA football Offense, then put up the offensive numbers.
For the 1st 5 years of the Coach Richt Era Coach Richt did very well.
For the next 5 years including this year up-coming, we face stark contrasts. I base this on Aaron Murray for the up-coming season but what it absolutely has shown the last 4 years is :
21 fumbles a year every year on the average last 4 years
14 interceptions a year every year on the average last 4 years
# 96 NCAA in Penalties on the average called against us every year of the last 4 years
The rest of T/O is defense. We have a fine, if not 1 of our best Defenses the last 30 years this up-coming season and feature the 2 best kickers on any team in America, both All-America kickers this season.
Instead of missing the boat in the discussion, if you are going to talk about UGA football Offense the last 4 years heading into this season with 2 freshmen quarterbacks, what we have is an utter failure of the UGA Offensive Coaching Staff.
Or else Coach Richt would not have agreed with me and demoted them all and taken over their former responsibilities 3 weeks ago now.
wasn't UGA the most efficient offense in the league last year? Even with Joe Cox and his 1,000 interceptions? I think the point is, this offense was dangerous last year with Joe Cox and not even knowing Washaun Ealey was on the team until the 5th game.....so there's a lot to look forward to offensively this year and a lot MORE to be excited about defensively, therefore, more W's.
ReplyDeleteAnon. 12:45, excuse me for asking, but did you even see the UGA offense play the last 9 years. 2007 and 2008 were the most explosive offenses of the Richt era. Since Bobo took over, we have been near the top in the SEC in red zone efficiency, total offense, and scoring.
ReplyDeleteSometimes our memories serve us wrong. Greenie's offenses often stalemated in important games and we had an incredible D to pull us through. Does Bobo make some boneheaded calls? Of course. So does every other OC in the country.
I guess you know things about Mark Richt demoting everyone that the rest of us don't know.