I'm intrigued by what's going to happen w/ this expansion. The latest talks have 6 of the Big 12 schools going to the Pac-10: Texas, A&M, Texas Tech, Colorado, Oklahoma, and Oklahoma St. Then, it looks like Nebraska & Missouri would end up in the Big 10. So, that leaves 4 also-rans left from the remaining Big 12: Kansas, K-State, Baylor & Iowa St. The thing I can't figure out about this is where all the pieces end up falling. Everyone says "Four 16-team conferences", which I'm all for, but how is the geography going to all work and how are the conferences going to shake out when one or two get left from these conferences that are decimated. And, I don't know if the powers that be have done the math -- The BCS conferences plus Notre Dame equals 66 teams. That means that 2 teams are out in the new 4 conference world, and there's certainly no room for the BYU's of the world.
I'm interested to see where this lands. Let's say the Pac-10 pulls off this deal and the Big 10 goes w/ Nebraska, Mizzou, ND, Pitt & Rutgers (or Syracuse). That leaves the Big East with 6 teams and hardly viable in football. I'd bet the SEC makes a move them to definitely lure Clemson and FSU. The question, then, is where do the other 2 come from. The remaining Big East would be WVU, South Fla., 'Cuse, Uconn, Louisville, & Cincy.
So the SEC has to find 2 more teams. I'm guessing we'd choose 2 from the following: WVU, Va Tech, & Louisville. I still think the SEC will make the wise (geographical & fanbase/passion) choices. I think WVU is a stretch. It's 9 hours from Athens and we're on the Eastern side of the conference. Blacksburg is only 6 hours from Athens and alread has this natural rivalry w/ UT. Louisville is in the heart of SEC country, just north of everyone.
I'd go something like this:
EAST
UGA
Fla.
South Crackilack
Clemson
FSU
Va Tech
UT
Vandy
WEST
Arkansas
LSU
Miss St.
Ole Miss
Auburn
Alabama
Louisville
UK
The only problem with that is that it makes the East brutal. We gain Clemson, FSU and Va Tech and lose UK. The West gains UK and Lousiville. Doesn't quite seem like an even trade, but that's not for me to figure out. I just think keeping the in-state schools in the same division goes w/ SEC tradition and makes the most sense. We have had great success w/ UT/Vandy, Bama/Auburn and Ole Miss/MSU in the same division. Makes sense that we'd keep that going. Now, geographically, there's a school I left out which makes a lot of sense -- Tech. You'll pull out Va Tech and put GT in my scenario and the trade offs look a little better and the natural rivalries are there. That makes more sense, just not sure the SEC wants Tech. In any event, I think we pull 3 to 4 from the ACC. But I definitely don't think we want Miami, not when there are bigger, public universities w/ better fanbases and closer to our charter schools. Miami is a long ways away from Fayetteville, Arkansas.
Let's say we take 3. That leaves the ACC w/ 9 teams left. There would be 5 leftover from the Big East in my scenario, and it makes sense the ACC would gobble them up. That gives them 14. They need 2 more and this is where it gets tricky. You've got 2 more teams to round out the field of 64, so to speak, and you've got those 4 old Big 12 teams. Kansas would certainly fit the B-ball mold of the ACC, but they're not on the Atlantic Coast by any stretch of the imagination. Allen says Baylor doesn't get left out in the cold because of Grant Taeff, but who's going to take them. Waco is close to nothing.
This is why this is happening wrong, to me. It's every man for himself and the last man (in my mind the ACC) is going ot end up in the most awkward spot. It would be the cleanest (and in the long run make the most sense) to have K-State and Kansas follow to the Big-10 and have that be a true Midwest conference, along w/ ND. Then have the ACC gobble up about all of the Big East to make that a powerful B-ball conference and all along the eastern seaboard. Have the Big East b-ball schools join the Atlantic 10 and leave out Iowa St. and Baylor, who haven't been relevant in Football for a long, long time. I think it's going to be fun to watch from the beginning and messy at the back end.
The SEC does not add significant value to itself unless it expands into different markets. Would CBS/ESPN pay significantly more for the TV rights in a new league that includes GT, FSU, Clemson, Miami and/or Louisville? I don't think so because the SEC already has a presence in those markets. CBS/ESPN would pay more, but I don't think they would pay so much more that it would make up for having to share revenue with 4 other teams. The only team of those mentioned by College Football News that adds any value is FSU because they are a national brand in a huge state.
ReplyDeleteWhich leads me to this: the college football world could be totally realigned because of the desire of just a very few schools for additional revenue. The SEC is perfectly happy with the status quo (see preceding paragraph) and so are almost all of the other BCS schools. The driving forces are the current Big 10 schools and Mizzou/Nebraska. If not for the Big 10 expansion talk, the SEC is not talking about expansion and neither is, in my opinion, the Pac-10. If the SEC adds GT, Clem, FSU, Louisville/Miami, it is only to keep up with the Joneses, not because it is dissatisfied with the way things are. I know these aren't revelations; but, I was just thinking about how so much could change based solely on the desires of just a few schools.
I don't think the Big 10 goes to 16. Again, they would have to generate a ton more gross revenue to maintain the current per-team payout. Also, going to 16 forever kills the Notre Dame Dream. Most likely scenario: Nebraska (about the population of Gwinnett County, but has marquee value), Missouri (two major cities in St Louis and KC) and Rutgers (New York Market). Again, I'm not saying anything new.
Question: If SEC goes to 16 teams and Tech is not one of them, do we have to drop that series?
The alleged Pac -10 proposal really points up the fact that football, not basketball is king. The Pac 10 doesn't want one of the top 4 traditions in college basketball (Kansas), but the Big 10 does want (it appears) a school that brings nothing else to the table except for a great football tradition (Nebraska)
I'm not ready for the super conferences. Too much that is good would change. How often would we go to Baton Rouge in a 16-team conference? Best case scenario: Notre Dame changes it stance (and there are rumblings) and joins the Big 10. Everything else stays the same.
Unlike the other leagues, the SEC is not dependent on cable subscribers as ESPN and CBS are nationwide. Other leagues are looking to expand a geographical footprint for more television sets.
ReplyDeleteThe SEC needs only worry about improving the product to maintain nationwide interest.
If 16 teams is the new norm, the SEC will raid the ACC of Miami, FSU, Ga Tech and Clemson. The ACC can fill with the remnants of the Big East.
Miami doesn’t fit with the SEC. They have only been good in football since 1980; in 1976 they barely voted to keep football. The board said if we are going to play football we should win at football. They then did what had to be done to be good at football, lowered academic standards and got a crooked coach. When that got out of hand 15 years later, they tightened up the standards, got new coaches and dropped off the football map for a few years. They are only good in football when the board says they can be. Despite the reputation, they are very much the small private school. The Hurricane Club is 11th in the ACC in money raised, only ahead of Wake. Even Duke raises more money. Other than FSU, and those are FSU fans, their stadium is empty. The basketball arena seats 8,000 and is rarely full. Baseball is good, not great anymore. And the ACC plays soccer which is huge there.
ReplyDeleteGeographically you can’t get much more southeast but in every other way, Miami doesn’t fit with the SEC. Not even close.
If the SEC is willing to put in a few years, South Florida would develop into a great SEC addition. They are a big, public school, big media market. South Florida is primed to explode and being in the SEC would hurry that up. They would take their hits and their other sports would have some catching up to do but, the upside of a big Florida public school that is no where near their potential is huge. And Tampa isn’t crazy far away from the SEC footprint.