Friday, May 14, 2010

Expansions - Clemson

Just for fun, I got to thinking about Clemson joining the SEC. Part of me never wants them in because (from my upbringing) I kinda want them to always WANT to be in, but just can't, like the nerd outside the club. But, part of me wants them to come in and get slaughtered. I took a theoretical look at their schedule this year and what it might look like as part of the revamped SEC east, including A & M as their 'all the time' opponent from the West (assuming Texas and FSU would play every year). I'm also assuming a 9-game conference slate, and assuming the keep the rivalry w/ GT (which is highly unlikely). But it's also very likely the conferences would move to 10 conference games.

 Sept. 4 North Texas
Sept. 11 Presbyterian
Sept. 18 at Auburn
Sept. 25 Open Date
Oct. 2 Miami (FL)
Oct. 9 at North Carolina
Oct. 16 Maryland
Oct. 23 Georgia Tech
Oct. 30 at Boston College
Nov. 6 NC State
Nov. 13 at Florida State
Nov. 20 at Wake Forest
Nov. 27 South Carolina

vs. North Texas
vs. PC
@ GT
vs. Tennessee
@ A & M
vs. UGA
vs. Auburn
@ Kentucky
vs. Vandy
@ Florida
vs. South Carolina

I'm sorry, that would be funny to watch. I think Clemson will lose @ Auburn this year, go 1-3 vs. FSU, Miami, UNC & Tech. That's 8-4 if they win the pushes vs. South Carolina, BC and maybe at Wake.

With my revamped schedule...those boys would be lucky to go 5-7. And I mean lucky. The great thing about being UGA, Florida and UT is that you don't have to play yourself. Adding FSU to that mix and that's 4 juggernauts you've got to play every stinkin' year. Not to mention the Cats, Cocks, and Aggies. And every once in a while you're going to draw Bama or LSU or the Horns from the west. They might want to re-think conference expansion in Pickens county. You're trading trips to Chapel Hill, Winston Salem and Chestnut Hill for trips to College Station, Lexington and Gainesville? whew...

Tuesday, May 11, 2010


I'm sure some of you have seen blutarsky's blog about turnover margin and regression to the mean. He and I are of kindred spirits. Here's the last 8 years of T.O. margin in the SEC:

Georgia's numbers are:
09: -16
08: -3
07: 9
06: -1
05: 11
04: -2
03: 11
02: 8

It's easy to see how you go to the Sugar Bowl or get to the dome: finish w/ +8 or better in T.O. margin. What you also see is that last year's numbers were darn near astronomical. How in the world we won 8 games playing 12 of 13 games against BCS opponents and playing in the SEC is beyond comprehension. They were literally our undoing. Losses at OSU, vs. Tennessee and vs. UK were directly related to turnovers. What you see is that the odds of us repeating that are even more astronomical. Last season alone took our average from 4.7 to 2.1. The law of averages (and the fact that our running backs know the plays now and we don't have Cox at QB) has to decrease the turnovers. Trading at Stillwater, vs. Arizona St., vs. LSU, and at Tech for vs. UL-Laf., at Colorado, at Miss. St., vs. Tech won't hurt either. Losing Willie, is obviously a plus, too. I'm looking through red and black glasses, but it's hard for me to look at those numbers and not thing we're going to be a lot better and by a lot I mean a lot more Ws.

Monday, May 10, 2010

Pre Season Rankings

I'm terribly confused by rankings. Barnhart's are a great example. Let me get this straight: We were 8-5, with a terrilble QB, the worst T.O. ratio in the nation (basically), and a defense that looked like a pop-warner team. With THAT team, we went TO Arkansas and blasted them w/ 51 points (Richard Samuel started that game at RB and Washaun never saw the field) and we went TO Tech and ran them 30-24. Arkansas also when 8-5 last year and has Mallet-head back but has done little besides cross it's fingers to fix that terrible D that made Joe Cox look more like Joe Montana. Tech lost a plethora of talented guys, returning basically only Nesbitt and Allen. They lost difference makers (Dwyer, Thomas, Morgan, Burnett).

On the other hand, we will start a QB not named Joe Cox, which is a step up. One has to figure we pick up more than 2 fumbles this year. We fired our DC, brought in an NFL fire-breather, and decided to take our head out of our rear-end on special teams. Plus, we finally figured out late in the year that King and Ealey can handle the offensive load just fine. And didn't we play Tech w/o AJ Green? Wow, we beat Arky and Tech and never played either of them w/ BOTH Ealey and Green together, our two best offensive players?

So, both of them come to Athens and, yet, Barnhart (and his is indicative of everyone else's) has UGA at #21, Tech at #15 and Arky at #16. I'm not saying we're a top 15 team, I'm just hard pressed to figure out how those 2 numbskull teams are 5 spots better than us.

Boy, you say it every year, but those first 2 conference games are ginormous. If we can get through (fake)SC and Arky 3-0 and head to starkville and Boulder w/ a little confidence, I feel good about us.

Can't wait for fall.