Wednesday, August 5, 2015

Running This State & This Conference

You know, I’m pretty pumped about seeing our RBs, especially that #27 kid.  I’m not convinced we’re going to see as much ‘spreading it around’ as the chatter suggest.  We found a special back last year.  We want to keep him fresh for 15 games, but in the big ones, we’re going to ride that horse.  Nicholas has a chance to be ‘all-time’ kind of special.  I’ll say it:  In 2014, he was better than Gurley was in 2012, and that’s saying something.  He was less explosive, but more dependable.  He rushed for over 1,500 yards.  Here’s the list of guys that have done that for three seasons in the history of college football:

3
3
3
3
3

No player has ever done it 4 years.  Ron Dayne also set the career record at 6,397.  If Nick stays 4 years, he has a legitimate shot.  And he seems like a he might pull a fast one and stay 4 years.  Anyway, that’s pie in the sky down the road, what matters is this year.  I give you food for thought for this year.  Since Vince Dooley retired, we signed Eric Zeier and we decided to play modern day football, we have had a 1,000 yd rusher 6 times:

1992      Garrison Hearst                             
9-2 & Citrus Bowl win
2002      Musa Smith                      
11-1, SEC Champs & Sugar Bowl Win
2007      Knowshon Moreno        
10-2, Sugar Bowl Win
2008      Knowshon Moreno        
9-3, Cap. One Bowl Win
2012      Todd Gurley                     
11-1, East Champs, Cap. One Bowl Win
2014      Nick Chubb                       
9-3, Belk Bowl Win

What does that mean?  Despite what any rival fan or Negatron Dawg fan would want to say, you can just about take 9-3 to the bank.  Only 2 of those 6 seasons did we lose 3 games, and that happened in 2008 when we were a mental trainwreck most of the year and 2014 with the most average QB that we’ve had in a long, long time and the most devastating crazy suspension that I can remember (Nebraska and Phillips comes to mind).  In the 2 years that we had elite defenses in those 6, we won the Sugar Bowl and were a top 5 team.

So, no matter what anyone wants to say, what questions they have, the last 25 years of history beg 3 questions:

·       Will we have a 1,000 yards rusher? YES
·       Will we have an elite defense?  YES, I believe so.  The best we’ve had in a while, at least since 2011.
·       What kind of QB will we be able to put with that Running Back and with that D?  Average QB play or a sieve for a defense will get you 1992, 2008 and 2014.  Elite defense and a QB that makes the plays needed gets you 2002, 2007 and 2012.

It is interesting that the two 3-loss seasons with a 1,000 rusher include inexplicable home losses to Tech.  I’ll get into my season analysis soon, but my early prediction is an early December date in the Dome with the Bayou Bengals, if they can find a competent QB.  Chubb and that #7 for LSU will be the best two players in the league.

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