Saturday, February 12, 2011

The SEC vs The other "big time" programs - Statistically

Very interesting post from the Dawgvent. Post originally made by Auburn fan.


This year, Auburn joined the 700+ win club. We are the 13th program to win 700 or more games.

After looking over the post Seraph posted earlier this week, I decided to go back over all the numbers and gather the info again.

I took the 13 members of the 700-win club and looked at their performance against the Top 30 programs on the All-Time Wins list, as well as their performance against each other.

I'll post a lot of different looks at the information over the next couple weeks. One of my favorite things to do with this info is to see what the all-time numbers would look like if the competition had been more even. For example, Auburn has played 597 games against Top 30 programs. Ohio State has played 304. USC has played 361. Tennessee has played 417. See, when you're Auburn, and you've played hundreds of more games against top programs, it obviously effects your winning % and your overall win total.

For today, I thought I'd show the 13 members of the 700-win club and what their numbers look like against the Top 30 programs on the All-Time Wins List.

* I also added 4 teams this time around. There are four teams that have played fewer than 1000 games, but have a winning % of .620 or greater. That would be top 20 all-time on the winning % list, but they haven't played enough games to be in the Top 30 All-Time Wins list. They are: Miami, Florida St, S. Florida, and Boise St. So I included them in these numbers.

MOST GAMES VS TOP 30 PROGRAMS

1. 598 - Georgia
2. 597 - Auburn
3. 528 - Alabama
4. 445 - LSU
5. 437 - Texas
6. 417 - Tennessee
7. 392 - Notre Dame
8. 382 - Penn State
9. 381 - Oklahoma
10. 366 - Nebraska
11. 361 - USC
12. 326 - Michigan
13. 304 - Ohio State

MOST WINS VS TOP 30 PROGRAMS

1. 305 - Auburn
2. 304 - Alabama
2. 304 - Georgia
4. 266 - Texas
5. 243 - Notre Dame
6. 223 - Penn State
7. 213 - Tennessee
8. 211 - USC
9. 207 - LSU
10. 206 - Oklahoma
11. 204 - Michigan
12. 180 - Nebraska
13. 173 - Ohio State



This is a good one.

This is a list of the % of a programs total games played against Top 30 programs.

For example, Oklahoma has played 1169 games, 381 of which were against Top 30 programs. That's 32.6%.

1. 51.6% - Auburn
2. 50.3% - Georgia
3. 45.4% - Alabama
4. 38.5% - LSU
5. 36.0 % - Texas
6. 35.2% - Tennessee
7. 33.2% - Notre Dame
8. 32.6% - Oklahoma
9. 31.8% - USC
10. 31.3% - Penn State
11. 29.7% - Nebraska
12. 26.5% - Michigan
13. 25.5% - Ohio State

This list is even better. It's a list of the % of a programs' wins that have come against Top 30 programs.

For example, Oklahoma has 809 wins, 206 have come against Top 30 programs. That's 25.5%.

1. 43.0% - Auburn
2. 41.2% - Georgia
3. 37.9% - Alabama
4. 31.3% - Texas
5. 28.8% - Notre Dame
6. 28.7% - LSU
7. 27.4% - USC
8. 27.2% - Penn State
9. 27.0% - Tennessee
10. 25.5% Oklahoma
11. 23.1% - Michigan
12. 21.3% - Nebraska
13. 20.8% - Ohio State

That's pretty insane if you think about it. Over 50% of all of Auburn's games have come against programs in the Top 30 all-time. Even more impressive is that 43% of all the wins we've ever had have come against programs in the Top 30 all-time.

It's no wonder Michigan has racked up 880+ wins when less than 27% of their games have come against Top 30 programs.

All I can say is..."Wow." Pretty remarkable. There's an easy explanation for this: SEC & Tech. We play in the toughest conference in the land and we've been playing tech for 30+ years as a non-conference game, and it's an extra game each year vs. a top 30 program.
This clearly explains the insanity of the SEC. 5 of the top 9 in wins vs. the top 30 teams come from the SEC. The missing member? Florida. And Florida has been the most successful program in the nation the last 20 years. That's what makes the SEC so crazy and that nobody gets. There are 6 teams that start each September who believe it is their birthrite to win the SEC and compete for a national titile. Why? Their history tells them that they can compete w/ the best because they've done it time and time again, and through the generations.
And then there are places like Arkansas and Ole Miss. Programs that have tasted greatness, just not as often. And places like South Carolina, where the fans believe in Black magic.
But when the big 6 get together, it's a blood bath every time. You can see how adding Nebraska really helps the Big 10. That gives that conference 4 of those teams, with places like Wisconsin and Iowa that are a lot like Arky & Ole Miss and South Carolina.
But having so many teams means that in the SEC, almost every week features a must-see-TV game between 2 of these crazy schools - AND - the little 6 spend all their effort trying to knock one of the big boys off.
Fascinating information.

2 comments:

  1. The first line kind of sums up the pointlessness of this sort of thing. Auburn is not the 13th program to win 700 or more games, they are the 17th. Without knowing which were excluded, I'd have to guess that because they aren't currently FBS, Yale, Harvard, Penn, and Princeton didn't get counted.

    However, at one time, these teams were the cream of the crop and any all-time calculation that doesn't even consider that is flawed. These teams were the best when teams like Auburn were considered even lower than those schools are now.

    Programs have had different histories and have compiled their wins against different opponents, making this sort of list useless to make any determinations off of.

    FWIW, I briefly checked the list against the top 30 FBS schools in wins plus the 4 you added and would definately question the accuracy of the numbers given. Most were close, but some missed by a ways including Michigan who has 356 games against the teams mentioned, not 326.

    ReplyDelete